Reduce balancing costs – with forecasts that shrink the imbalances in your balancing group
Every quarter-hour in which generation or consumption deviates from your nominated schedule costs balancing energy. alitiq reduces these deviations with AI forecasts for solar, wind and load – from the day-ahead schedule to intraday corrections.
Why balancing energy can get so expensive
As a balance responsible party, you nominate a schedule for every quarter-hour. If generation or consumption in your balancing group deviates from it, the transmission system operator closes the gap with control reserve – and charges you for it as balancing energy.
In Germany, the price is the reBAP, the uniform imbalance price across all control areas. It is set for every quarter-hour, follows the cost of the control reserve that was activated and is highly volatile: when the system is tight, it can reach a multiple of the exchange price for power.
It gets expensive above all when many balancing groups are off in the same direction at the same time – for example because the weather turns out differently than forecast. That is exactly when the system is short and every deviation costs the most.
How alitiq lowers your balancing costs
Smaller deviations mean less balancing energy. alitiq works on three levers.
More accurate forecasts for solar, wind and load
alitiq trains a dedicated AI model for every plant and portfolio. It combines forecasts from several weather models, including the German Weather Service (DWD) and ECMWF, with how your plants and customers actually behave.
Learn more: Solar PV Forecast · Wind Power Forecast · Load Forecast
Short-term updates, not just day-ahead
Alongside the day-ahead forecast for your schedule nomination, alitiq keeps updating the forecast intraday. You spot deviations early enough to close them on the intraday market instead of letting them turn into balancing energy.
Live measurements feed the model
Current measurement and output data from your plants flow into the forecast continuously. When generation departs from the plan, the system detects it in real time and corrects the following quarter-hours.
Savings calculator
Calculate your savings
Estimate how much you save each year on balancing costs and intraday re-trading when your generation forecast becomes more accurate.
- Covers balancing energy and intraday re-trading
- Transparent assumptions you can adjust
- Personal forecast benchmark on request
Adjust assumptions
Avoided imbalance energy = capacity × nRMSE improvement × 0.8 (MAE-to-RMSE ratio) × relevant hours (PV 4,380 daylight hours, wind 8,760 h) × aggregation factor (10 MW: 1.0, 100 MW: 0.8, 1,000 MW: 0.6), since site-level errors partly cancel out in larger portfolios. The share not corrected intraday ends up as imbalance and incurs balancing costs.
Estimated annual savings with alitiq
€30,835
equals €0.31 per MWh generated
Directly avoided costs for balancing group imbalances
Assumption: better day-ahead position, less costly intraday re-trading
Non-binding model calculation based on typical market values. Actual savings depend on your portfolio, sites, marketing strategy and market prices.
Who benefits
Direct marketers
You pool many solar and wind plants in your balancing group. Even small forecast improvements add up across the portfolio – in balancing costs and in intraday trading.
Municipal utilities and energy suppliers
You balance generation and consumption. With forecasts for solar, wind and load – for standard load profile and metered customers alike – you reduce deviations on both sides of your balancing group.
Plant operators
Depending on your direct marketing contract, you carry part of the balancing costs. A more accurate forecast for your plants reduces the deviations behind them.
Easy integration
The forecasts arrive where you need them – without a big IT project.
REST API
Retrieve forecasts and send measurements through a documented HTTPS interface.
Python package
With the alitiq-py package, you bring forecasts into your Python workflows in a few lines of code.
File delivery
Forecasts as files via sFTP, email or S3 – no development effort on your side.
Frequently asked questions about balancing energy
What is balancing energy?
The transmission system operator uses balancing energy when generation and consumption in a balancing group don't match the nominated schedule. The balance responsible party pays for it.
Who pays for balancing energy?
It is charged to the balance responsible party – typically direct marketers, energy suppliers or municipal utilities. Depending on the contract, they pass part of the cost on to plant operators.
How are the costs calculated?
For every quarter-hour, the deviation is multiplied by the reBAP, the uniform imbalance price across all German control areas. Depending on the direction of the deviation and the system situation, this can mean a cost or a revenue.
How much can better forecasts save?
That depends on portfolio size, plant mix and your current forecast quality. Our savings calculator gives you a first estimate for your portfolio.
What data does alitiq need for a forecast?
To get started, the plants' master data such as location, capacity and orientation is enough. Measurements improve the forecast further and can be sent via API or sFTP.
How quickly is the forecast ready to use?
For PV plants, a first baseline forecast is ready a few minutes after the plant is created. Once measurements are available, you get the optimised forecast from the next day.
Test alitiq with your own plants
We create a forecast benchmark for your plants or portfolio and show you how much deviation – and therefore balancing energy – you can avoid.